FAU vs Memphis
This game is going to be tight. Both of these teams have tremendous upside and I could see either of these two teams winning this game. Memphis has a record of 26-8, while FAU has a record of 31-3. Memphis tends to put up more points in their games than FAU does, and they have one guard in Kendrick Davis that puts up a ton of points. Kendrick averages 22.1 ppg and he is unlike anything that FAU has as their team.
FAU has won each of their last 5 and Memphis has won four of their last five including a win in their conference tournament finals against Houston. What makes FAU so attractive to me is the height of their center Vladislav Goldin as well as their defense. Goldin has 4 inches over the forward that he will be facing off again and FAU has been finding ways to slow down their opponents scoring this year.
For a reason that I don’t really know, I really like FAU in this matchup. I believe the Owls are going to show up in a big way and surprise the Memphis fans and players.
Hammer: FAU +1.5
The Gentlemen's Bracket
About a 80% chance that this is the first perfect bracket ever so feel free to copy it.
- The Gentlemen
These picks are my best for everyone to get a perfect East region of their brackets three best spread bets are at the end.
1.Purdue vs 16. Fair Dickinson
Fair Dickinson just played in their 16 seed play in game and beat the ever-living shit out of Texas Southern. It looked like Texas Southern had no interest in playing in the rest of the NCAA tournament and I was frankly disgusted by their performance. With that being said I don’t believe I need to do a lot of convincing for this game. Purdue are -23.0point favorites in this game, they’re undefeated in their last 5 games and a one seed. The only time a one seed has lost in the first round is when shitty ass UVA decided to dump it to UMBC. The one seed isn’t going to lose here.
8.Memphis vs 9.FAU
This matchup is a very interesting one. For most people looking at their brackets they may see Memphis against a less known school like FAU and pick Memphis immediately. But there is a reason FAU is a 9 seed. They are 31-3 this year and they won their conference tournament. Although they don’t have any huge wins this year that really stick out here are the facts.
Winning Percentage: FAU – 91%; Memphis: 78%
Opponent Efficiency: FAU – 95.1; Memphis 99.2
Shooting Percentage: FAU – 58%; Memphis 56%
In all of these category’s FAU is winning. And I know a lot of people are gonna cry and say that FAU wasn’t playing anyone and Memphis had a much harder schedule. I do not give a singular fuck FAU is the better team and they’re going to show it on Friday.
5.Duke vs 12. Oral Roberts
This Matchup is also very interesting in my opinion. There are a shit ton of people that are saying that Oral Roberts is going to be the 5 – 12 upset this year and Duke isn’t ready for the offensive efficiency that Oral Roberts are going to come with. I’m not going to sit here and pretend that Oral Roberts doesn’t put up a ton of points. In their last three games they’ve scores 96,70, and 92. Their record this season of 30-4 is also insanely good. But this isn’t gonna be the 5 – 12 upset. Duke is a much better team than Oral Roberts. Their defense is much better as they are allowing 4 less points per 100 opponent possessions than Oral Roberts. And unlike FAU, I do not believe that Oral Roberts is going to be able to keep up with Dukes offense. Duke is going to show up on Thursday.
4.Tennessee vs 13. Louisiana
I don’t really think that I need to do too much explaining for this game either. The difference between opponent efficiency for these two teams is just way too big for Lousianna to have a chance when they don’t score more than Tennessee either. I do not believe that this game is going to be close and I do not believe that Lousiania, even though I love the Ragin Cajuns, have a single chance of winning this game.
8.Kentucky vs 11. Providence
This was the hardest game for me to pick in the East region by far and there is absolutely no reason for it to be this hard for me. For some reason I absolutely love Providence. The only thing that Providence has over Kansas is a better shooting percentage. They aren’t ranked as high, they don’t score as much, and they aren’t as hungry. Kentucky is HUNGRY. After their humiliating loss as the two seed last year to St. Peters. I personally had them going very deep and winning some of my brackets, and I will make the same mistake again this year. Kentucky better be as pissed after losing to St. Peters this year as I am that they lost. If they do not win on Friday vs Providence, I will personally go kick the fuck out of on player on their team and then get beat the fuck up by the rest.
3.Kansas St. vs 14. Montana St.
This Matchup is going to be my biggest upset in the first round of the tournament. Do not get me wrong Kansas St. is a great fucking team. They have an extremely efficient offense, and they are better than Montana St. on defense. But RaeQuan Battle is built to be a star. This kid averages 17.4 pts per game and he shots just under 50% from the floor. I know that Montana St. got shit on my Arizona, one of the best teams in the nation. But I do truly believe that their matchup against K State is pretty much even, and they could for sure pull out the win there. And also even if I’m completely wrong about this pick whoever wins is losing to Kentucky regardless.
Pick: Montana St.
7.Michigan St. vs 10.USC
The Michigan St. Spartans are a very good team. They have played #2 Gonzaga and lost by 1. They played #4 Kentucky and beat them by 9. And they’ve Played #3 Purdue and lost by 1. USC also has a lot of tough games but none of them were as close as Michigan State has been. Michigan State is supposed to be another toss up game between the 7 and 10 seeds, but I’ve seen Tyson Walker play about 2 games and he is ELECTRIC. Michigan State is the better team.
Pick: Michigan State
2.Marquette vs 15. Vermont
Marquette has fucked me over more than any team who has ever played in the NCAA tournament. I don’t know if it’s because of their name or what, but I always pick them to go way too far in the tournament. Usually, they’re a 10 or 7 seed when they do their best to fuck me over like this, but I promise they will do it again this year. I obviously picking them to win this game against Vermont as they are better than them in just about every category that matters, but I do promise you that they will fuck me over later in this tournament. So after they win this first round matchup just start fading me.
Best bets of the East Region:
Tennessee is going to blow Louisiana out of the water on Thursday. If they lose this game I will be losing so much money, BUT that won’t be happening. Fuck the Cajuns, go Vols.
Montana State +8.5
I have already told you that I love Montana State moneyline in this matchup. For this reason, even if they do not win this game I don’t see a world in which they don’t cover.
FAU is going to win this matchup. They are a great team who people don’t like because “They haven’t played anyone.” Shut the fuck up. They’re a great team and they are going to win this game outright. Take the points if your soft, take the moneyline if your real.
The Midwest is a region that could be full of upsets and dominant runs. Here’s my cheat sheet for the best picks, with a few spreads I like at the end.
1. Houston vs 16. Northern Kentucky
Houston has the all around effort that fuels their defensive ferocity, rebounding prowess, and will to get to the free throw line. The only stumbling block the Cougars face is the health of All-American guard Marcus Sasser. Signs point to him being available in the second round, at the least, but I think it could be a benefit to rest him in the round of 64. With or without their star, I expect the Cougars to blowout the Norse.
8. Iowa vs 9. Auburn
This game comes down to how well Iowa shoots the ball, mainly from 3 point range. Iowa has a top 5 most efficient offense in the nation and can shoot the lights out of any team. The key for the Hawkeyes is to get the ball into the hands of Kris Murray, Tony Perkins, and Payton Sandfort. Auburn has to be aggressive and hope that their defense can cause Iowa some problems. I don’t think Auburn can keep up with Iowa on offense, so I have the Hawkeyes.
5. Miami vs 12. Drake
Things get tricky here because I see one upset, not two and not none, in the 5 vs 12 and 4 vs 13. In this game, Miami could be without their starting forward and premier rebounder Norchad Omier. Drake is a tough team with a lot of experience. They will be ready no matter who is in the opposing starting five. Isaiah Wong is a very talented guard that the Hurricanes will have, but the Omier injury concern makes me too cautious. I’m taking the Bulldogs to upset.
4. Indiana vs 13. Kent State
All the talk I’ve heard is that the Golden Flashes could be a problem for the Hoosiers. They’re led by Sincere Carry who may just be an elite guard. With that being said, they’re not the 4 seed here, and there’s reason to praise Indiana. If anyone is going to take over this game it’s All-American forward Trayce Jackson-Davis. He averages a double-double with 20.8 points and 10.9 rebounds and I don’t think Kent State, let alone any team in the NCAA, can slow him down. I like Indiana.
6. Iowa State vs 11. Pitt
Pitt can shoot and was hot against a stingy Mississippi State defense which allowed them to escape an early exit. Iowa State has an even better and more energetic defense that will be very disruptive. I think Pitt’s luck runs out and Iowa State puts some offense together. The cyclones keep on spinning.
3. Xavier vs 14. Kennesaw State
Xavier lost a huge piece in Zach Freemantle late in the year. Despite this blow, the Musketeers have continued their promising play, picking up wins over Providence and Creighton with narrow losses to Marquette. Kennesaw State plays in the ASUN and has their most valuable wins over Liberty. There’s no reason to overthink this. Xavier.
7. Texas A&M vs 10 Penn State
This is a game worth overthinking because both squads are rated rather evenly. The Nittany Lions have a lethal offense that can come up huge in any game behind outstanding performances by senior guard Jalen Pickett. They’ve picked up wins over Indiana and Northwestern, but have also failed to compete with Purdue and Michigan State. I like the Aggies more because of their balanced strength on offense and defense. They’ve downed SEC powerhouses Alabama and Tennessee and beat Auburn and Arkansas 2 times a piece. The Aggies have more consistency and upside on both ends of the court. Texas A&M keeps on dancing.
2. Texas vs 15. Colgate
I don’t have much to say on this one. Texas is good. Colgate is good when playing bad teams. The Raiders have a defensive efficiency outside the top 200 while the Longhorns are top 10 in this category. Coming off of a Big 12 Championship win I expect Texas to still be alive in a week or very possibly even two. Horns up!
3 Favorite Bets:
Auburn vs Iowa o151.5
Kennesaw State vs Xavier o151
Northern Kentucky vs Houston -18.5
March Madness First Round South Picks
Ladies and Gents, may I present to you my picks for the South Region of the long awaited March Madness Tournament.
Alabama vs Texas A&M-CC
Alabama - We have all heard of this Bama team by now, if not for their dominance in college basketball this season, then it was because of their legal issues. This team is led by arguably the number one player in the country right now Brandon Miller, who seems to have cleared his legal issues. Whether you agree or not with this team's off the court issues, there is no denying that they can easily win it all in this tournament. They have played a significantly harder schedule than Texas A&M-CC, and this game should be an absolute Bama blowout. ROLL TIDE.
Maryland vs West Virginia
West Virginia- Another either way matchup in the South, this should be a fun game to watch. And it all comes down to how these two teams have been in their recent games. Marland lost to Ohio State, and Penn State in their last three games and beat Minnesota. While West Virginia lost Kansas, but beat Texas Tech, and Kansas State in their last three games, I don't think anyone would argue against being tougher opponents. I think it's going to be a scrapy battle, but I like the Mountaineers to come out on top of this one.
SDSU vs Charleston
SDSU - Charleston has been outstanding this season with a 31-3 record they have been playing as well as anyone in the NCAA. The only problem is they have been relying on scoring a ton of points per game in order to win. SDSU is GRITTY. They have allowed no more than 61 pts. To their opponents in their last 5 games and I don’t think Charleston is going to be able to score like they have been against lesser opponents.
UVA vs Furman
UVA - This UVA vs. Furman matchup is going to be a good one. UVA just lost in the ACC tournament finals to Duke while Furman won their respective tournament. I don’t believe that this is a game where UVA is just going to be able to walk all over their opponent, but I do think that they will win. Furman relies on scoring points and that is one of the things UVA is best against. Furman isn’t going to be able to put up 80 or 90 pts and that is going to be the difference in this game.
Creighton vs NC State
NC State- This NC State team is good, like really really good. They haven't had the most amazing eye-catching season, but it's an extremely talented team. NC State's success depends fully on their guard play, their guards aren’t afraid to fire off threes at all, Jarkell Joiner, Casey Morsell, and Trequavion Smith all attempt anywhere from 5 to 9 threes a game. If NC State gets hot with the three ball, then I think they will easily hand this Creighton team the upset.
Baylor vs UCSB
Baylor- Baylor is Baylor, they may have not had the best looking Baylor season to date, but everyone knows when it comes to the tournament they turn it up. Baylor has played in arguably the best conference of basketball this season, the Big 12, and have been battling ranked the entire season. This Baylor team is battle tested, and with the strength of schedule they’ve played this year, there is no shot they roll over for USCB. With this being said, the Bears led by Keyonte George should cruise through this first round matchup.
Missouri vs Utah State
Missouri- This is one of the sketchiest games in the South. Both these teams score big numbers, while also allowing big opponents to put up numbers. The game is simply going to come down to which offense can outscore the other. I think the Mizzou team is simply more battle tested than this Utah State team, having to face a lot of tough opponents over the season. Mizzou even beat Tennessee in both its matchups this year. This game is going to be an absolute shootout, but I back this Mizzou team to come out the victor.
Arizona vs Princeton
Arizona- The PAC-12 champions Arizona have been through a lot this year playing in a pretty tough PAC-12 conference. Even with playing tough matchups all season long they managed to stay ranked top 17 in the country all season long. Their PAC-12 tournament display shows just how talented this team is, beating a favorite to win the whole Tournament UCLA for the championship. Yes, UCLA is down one of their star players, but they still are an insanely talented team, so this Arizona win speaks volumes to what this team can accomplish this March Madness. Yes Princeton won the IV-League, but let's keep it real the level of competition is nowhere close.
Top 3 South Bets
Missouri vs Utah o155.5- Both teams put up points, both teams concede points, keep it simple, take the over.
West Virginia ML- It's going to be a dogfight, but don’t overthink the Mountaineers.
NC State +5.5- If they drained their threes, this should be a straight up win for NC State. Even if there is not, this game should be close no matter what and the +5.5 is a very generous amount of points to take.
Bets: Missouri vs Utah o155.5, West Virginia ML, NC State +5.5
March Madness First-Round Predictions (West Division)
Beware the Ides of March? No, no, no, beware the 12 5 upset, beware the team you’ve never heard of making you throw your phone across the room, beware going so hard during the first few games that you get a DUI picking up your kids from school. The first weekend of the tournament are THE best days of the year, so without further ado let’s get into the wild wild west (division)
FYI, these are simply picks to win I will give my 3 best bets at the bottom of the blog.
1 Kansas vs 16 Howard: Kansas
Not gonna waste anyone’s time with an explanation
8 Arkansas vs 9 Illinois: Arkansas
Does this look like a coaching staff that is going to allow their team to go through a first-round exit? NO!
Also influencing this pick: I watched, and bet on #1 Auburn last season during this game:
5 St. Mary’s vs 12 VCU: VCU
Ever since VCU went to the final four in 2011 as an 11-seed they’re just one of those teams I pick to win in the first round every year. I’m used to them winning as a 10-seed, but there is no doubt in my mind they will be fine as a 12.
4 Uconn vs 13 Iona: Uconn
The legend Rick Pitino has publicly stated recently he doesn’t even know if he’s gonna stay and coach at Iona after this season
Not only that but I love Uconn this season and have them going far in a substantial amount of my brackets. Uconn is the way to go.
6 TCU vs 11 ASU: TCU
Max Mf Duggan
Do I care he plays a completely different sport and has nothing to do with this basketball program? Nope
3 Gonzaga vs 14 GCU: Gonzaga
I literally just had to google what GCU stands for. Public service announcement for everyone except GCU students, it stands for Grand Canyon University. Gonzaga is gonna be fine because the man the myth the legend
Drew Timme is a beast and will lead Gonzaga to an easy first-round W
7 Northwestern vs 10 Boise st: Boise St
Northwestern have been bums in the Big 10 for a while and I never take them seriously. I’m picking Boise because I recently worked with a guy from there who informed me it’s pronounced Boi-see NOT Boi-zee.
Also, Boise St has a blue football field so… you know
2 UCLA vs 15 UNCA: UCLA
I see some familiar faces on UCLA from their Final Four team 2 years ago and that’s enough for me to be sold. Also, I know that both me and the committee are hoping for a Gonzaga v UCLA rematch.
Boise St +1.5
Utah Valley vs New Mexico
I can’t say I watch much Western Athletic or Mountain West Conference play. I also couldn’t tell you who won last year's National Invitation Tournament (NIT). What I do know is that the Utah Valley Wolverines versus the New Mexico Lobos is a 1st round game like no other. It’s rare to see a college basketball total set above 155 and even 150 is considered high. This total for the Wolverines against the Lobos opened at 162. Yes, that’s a lot of baskets, but if we dig into the statistics of each team we can see why and what side of the total we should be on.
Utah Valley is interesting because they’re in the WAC and their strength of schedule is weak. This causes their adjusted offensive efficiency (adjO) to be outside the top 100 and their adjusted defensive efficiency (adjD) to be top 40. Nonetheless, the Wolverines scored the nation's 65th best PPG at 76.9, and Boise State, a MWC opponent, hung a whopping 87 points on them. Meanwhile, New Mexico has a top 20 adjO which is up there with the likes of Alabama and Texas. The Lobos scored an average of 77.1 PPG in the 8 games they played against teams participating in March Madness, and Utah Valley is far from a team of that caliber. Pair that offense with a leaky defense that averaged 74 PA and we should see some high scores on both sides.
All of the numbers point towards this game going over the total. It’s certainly quite the hill to climb, but there’s great reasoning as to why the total was set so high in the first place. New Mexico is a dead over team, hitting the over on totals in 6 of their last 7 games. I expect New Mexico to score the way they always do, and Utah Valley should be able to find points against a defense of the same quality they’re used to. I can easily see the final score of this game being 81-90, Lobos win.
Pick: Utah Valley vs New Mexico o162
SE Missouri St. vs Texas A&M-CC
March is finally upon us, and we’re into the First Four. The first battle that will send a team into a field of 63 others is the Southeast Missouri State Redhawks versus the Texas A&M-Corpus Christi Islanders. You might think that you want to stay away from this game after reading two school names that you’ve never heard of. Let me be the first to tell you that you’ve never been more wrong. This game is the perfect kind to bet on because of the data you can find on how different these teams are, not to mention that this is top-tier entertainment with two teams fighting for their tournament lives.
The glaring contrast between these teams is their journey to where they are now. The Islanders had a steady season that saw them top their conference and grind through competition to win the Southland. The Redhawks road was quite the opposite. They had rough patches throughout their regular season including 7 straight out of conference losses followed by a 2-5 in conference run to end their regular season. Fortunately for them, they found their groove in the conference tournament and won the OVC as the 5 seed. The only question is, what Redhawks team are we going to see against the Islanders?
I see more reason to side with a consistent Texas A&M-CC team. They’re high-scoring and an efficient team from the field and the free throw line. Players like Terrion Murdix and Trevian Tennyson will make sure this stays true. If these guards can limit opposing guard Phillip Russell, the Redhawks will struggle to find points. If the Islanders can find success in rebounding and can get to the line, this should be their game to lose.
Pick: Texas A&M-Corpus Christi -3.5